JAKARTA – How the desert kingdom’s oil wealth drives its opposition to global climate action—even as its own people face extreme heat?

The Colossal Cash Machine

Imagine receiving $170,000. Now imagine getting that same amount again just one minute later—and every minute after that for years. This staggering figure represents the profit generated by Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco, the world’s largest oil and gas producer in 2024.

This continuous flood of money sustains the authoritarian kingdom, funding fossil fuel subsidies for citizens, soft power initiatives like hosting the football World Cup, and extraordinary construction megaprojects.

However, this same wealth explains why Saudi Arabia views accelerating climate action—particularly the global shift away from fossil fuels—as an existential threat to both its economy and the ruling royal family.

Key Statistics:

• GDP per capita: $35,230 (global average: $14,210)
• Annual CO2 emissions: 736 million tonnes (seventh highest globally)
• CO2 per capita: 22.13 metric tonnes (global average: 4.7)
• Population: 36 million
• Climate action rating: Critically insufficient

Decades of Diplomatic Obstruction

For decades, Saudi Arabia has fought more aggressively than any other nation to block and delay international climate action—acting as a diplomatic “wrecking ball” while insisting that abandoning fossil fuels is unrealistic fantasy. This opposition has persisted leading up to the UN Cop30 climate summit in Brazil, even as the country simultaneously pursues a rapid transition to renewable energy domestically.

Paradoxically, by slowing climate action, Saudi Arabia worsens impacts on its own desert kingdom, which is extremely vulnerable to global heating. Its 36 million residents already endure conditions “at the verge of livability.”

“The Saudis are not crazy,” explains Karim Elgendy, an expert on climate and energy in the Middle East. “But they don’t want to be a failed state.”

Near-Death of the Global Climate Treaty

Saudi Arabia nearly killed the global UN climate treaty at its inception three decades ago. Veteran negotiator Alden Meyer recalls being present at UN headquarters in New York as the agreement was about to be finalized. French diplomat Jean Ripert had to ignore Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, who were “vigorously waving their nameplates in the back of the room, trying to object to adoption of the treaty. He just ignored them and brought down the gavel.”

“But that’s something you can only do if it’s a handful of countries,” Meyer notes. Since then, Saudi Arabia has carefully mobilized the Arab group and other major players to devastating effect. “They’ve been the point of the spear in terms of organizing the resistance,” says Meyer, who works at climate think tank E3G.

The Consensus Weapon

An early and crucial victory for Saudi Arabia and its oil-rich OPEC allies was blocking the use of voting in UN climate negotiations—despite voting being standard practice in other UN bodies. Instead, consensus is required for approval. “This impasse has never been overcome. It gives outsized influence to laggards, which suits Saudi Arabia very well,” according to a report by the Climate Social Science Network, with the impasse since “crippling” the talks.

Armed with an effective veto, Saudi Arabia has consistently held back climate negotiations by mastering the complex procedural rules governing the process, “seeking to ensure it achieves as little as possible, as slowly as possible,” the report stated.

Master of Obstruction Tactics

More than a dozen obstruction tactics have been deployed by Saudi diplomats, including:

• Disputing meeting agendas
• Claiming certain discussion topics have no mandate—such as phasing out fossil fuels
• Insisting that assistance for vulnerable countries adapting to climate change must be linked to compensating oil-rich nations for lost sales
• Strongly opposing virtual negotiations when COVID-19 shut down the world in 2020

“They are really good at it, absolutely masterful,” says Dr. Joanna Depledge at the University of Cambridge.

Saudi Arabia also employs broader arguments: that major historical emitters like the US, Russia, and UK bear primary responsibility for addressing climate change under treaty terms, and that while Saudi Arabia sells oil to fund development, other nations are the ones actually burning it.

Expanding the Obstruction Campaign

In recent years, Saudi climate obstruction has expanded beyond climate talks to numerous international environmental meetings. A plan to cap plastic production, supported by over 100 nations, collapsed in August following opposition from Saudi Arabia and allies, who had also blocked voting in those negotiations.

A landmark agreement for a carbon tax on shipping was derailed in October after Saudi Arabia—supporting voting on this occasion—successfully called for postponement amid pressure from the US. Even at a UN desertification summit hosted by Saudi Arabia itself in 2024, nations failed to agree on a drought response because the hosts refused to allow any mention of climate in the agreement.

This comprehensive assault on climate action was memorably described by Meyer as a “wrecking ball” last year. “They definitely are still in that mode,” he confirms.

Weakening Scientific Reports

Saudi Arabia has also consistently worked to dilute the influential reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which require government approval, Meyer says, “systematically trying to water down, weaken and remove” references to concepts like “net zero,” despite Riyadh having a 2060 net zero target.

One striking fact illustrates the success of Saudi obstructionism: It took 28 years of annual UN Cop negotiations before fossil fuels were first mentioned in a decision at the Cop28 summit in Dubai in 2023, immediately triggering Saudi pushback that left that strand of talks a “debacle,” according to Depledge. The Saudis characterized the agreed “transition away from fossil fuels” as merely one option on an “à la carte menu.”

Protecting Extraordinary Wealth

It’s difficult to comprehend the scale of what Saudi Arabia seeks to protect. Aramco was the world’s largest oil and gas producer in 2024, and the kingdom holds the second-largest proven oil reserves globally (after Venezuela).

Its oil is easy to extract, and its ability to rapidly increase or decrease production gives it tremendous influence over the global oil market, which it leverages as part of the OPEC+ cartel of oil exporters to manipulate oil prices.

According to Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser, it costs just $2 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, yet that barrel has been selling for between $60 and $80 over the past year. This extraordinary profit margin meant Aramco banked $250 million in profit every day from 2016 to 2023, making it the world’s most profitable company during that period.

“Saudi Arabia wants to prevent a strong global response to climate change because they see that as really threatening their economy, for reasons that are pretty damn obvious,” Depledge explains.

An Existential Threat

“Saudi Arabia depends on fossil exports for national survival, and the regime regards the prospect of a green energy transition as an existential threat,” writes historian Nils Gilman in Foreign Policy. “The House of Saud uses its oil rents to finance both its domestic social order and its international influence.” For instance, Saudi Arabia spent more on fossil fuel subsidies—keeping energy cheap for citizens—than on its national health budget in 2023.

“Its ambition is not to phase out fossil fuels, but to monopolize them as global supply tightens,” Gilman argues, positioning Aramco as the last producer standing. In 2024, Aramco had the largest near-term expansion plans for oil and gas production of any company worldwide, 60% of which could not be burned under a 1.5C climate scenario.

Ensuring Future Customers

Saudi Arabia is also working to maintain a steady customer base, even as wealthy nations decarbonize. In 2023, reports revealed an “oil demand sustainability programme”—a massive global investment plan to stimulate demand for Saudi oil and gas in Africa and elsewhere. Critics claimed the plan was designed to get countries “hooked on its harmful products,” increasing the use of fossil fuel-powered vehicles, buses, and planes.

The Vision 2030 Dilemma

Saudi oil revenue comprises 60% of its government budget, down from 90% a decade ago, as the kingdom attempts to diversify its economy away from oil through its Vision 2030 plan.

This trillion-dollar initiative—ranging from the $500 billion futuristic city Neom to a desert ski resort for the 2029 Asian Winter Games—faces a significant challenge. To balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of $96 per barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics.

“The core aim of Vision 2030 is to cut oil dependence,” says Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg. Yet “the kingdom has become more reliant on oil.”

The Three-Pronged Strategy

Karim Elgendy, head of the Carboun Institute, the Middle East’s first independent climate and energy think tank, says the apparent contradictions in Saudi oil policy can be understood as a three-point plan.

The kingdom has always wanted to maintain oil income, he explains: “But Saudi Arabia realized around 2021 or so that the momentum behind the energy transition is now unstoppable. Since then, the strategy has changed and the approach is now more of a trident.”

“The first element is slowing down the global transition,” he says. “The second is decarbonizing internally. It has found out that new electricity capacity is generated much, much cheaper by solar and wind.” This decarbonization is the role of the Saudi Green Initiative, pushing toward half of electricity capacity being renewable by 2030 and a “flourishing” electric vehicle industry.

Importantly, this also dramatically reduces Saudi Arabia’s enormous domestic oil consumption—the fourth largest globally—meaning billions of dollars worth of additional oil available for export. As transport expert Anvita Arora at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center put it in 2022: “If we keep consuming our own oil, we won’t have any oil left to sell.”

“The third element,” says Elgendy, “is to export every barrel, every molecule, of oil as fast as possible to fund the very thing Saudi Arabia wants to be in the future: diversified and decarbonized.” Essentially, it’s a race: Saudi Arabia is attempting to sell enough oil to fund its transition from a petrostate before the world stops buying.

“Saudi Arabia wants to be a green country,” he says. “It wants to be a player in the climate economy that is currently being forged, but it can only do so with the money that it is currently making from fossil fuel sales.”

The Carbon Circular Economy Pitch

The kingdom is also promoting the concept of a “carbon circular economy,” based on the argument it frequently makes that oil itself isn’t the “devil”—emissions are the climate danger. “They’ve been trying to play up carbon capture and storage (CCS), which could allow you to reduce emissions while continuing to use their product,” says Meyer. “But of course, the reality is that CCS is nowhere ready at scale to meet any substantial share of the emissions reductions needed.”

Overall, Saudi Arabia’s national climate action is rated as “critically insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker, or at best “at the drawing board stage” by another analysis.

Already at the Edge of Survival

What impact does global heating have on people in the desert kingdom itself? Analysis of more than a dozen recent scientific studies shows the climate crisis has already arrived and the outlook is alarming.

“Saudi Arabia’s environmental parameters are already at the verge of livability,” stated a 2023 report by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center. It is among the hottest and most water-stressed countries on Earth.

The report examined the consequences of a 3C warmer world for the kingdom—which the planet is on track to reach by about 2100—and found it would have “profound implications on the future viability of a sustainable and healthy society, and will likely manifest an existential crisis to Saudi Arabia.”

Current Climate Impacts

The country is already experiencing severe heat. Average temperatures rose by 2.2C between 1979 and 2019, nearly three times faster than the global rate, with even faster increases in Riyadh and Mecca, as the dry Arabian peninsula land was superheated by the climate crisis. The scorching summers are worse—temperatures rose by 2.6C over those four decades.

Saudi Arabia’s most significant event—the hajj pilgrimage—has already been affected by extreme heat, with at least 1,300 Muslim pilgrims dying in a heatwave in 2024.

Apocalyptic Future Scenarios

The future could be far worse. The worst-case scenario for Saudi Arabia is catastrophic: “ultra-extreme heatwaves” with temperatures reaching 56C or higher and lasting several weeks, with summers averaging 9C hotter.

Even if carbon emissions are sharply reduced and global temperature rise is limited to 2C, Saudi Arabia could experience a 13-fold increase in heat-related death rates. This rises to a 63-fold increase in the worst-case scenario. Coastal cities such as Jeddah and Dammam face the additional risk of humid heat, which is even deadlier than dry heat as it prevents the body from cooling through sweating.

Floods and Rising Seas

Drought is one of the greatest concerns, but excessive water in the form of flash floods is already an increasing and deadly reality in Saudi Arabia, where over 80% of people live in cities. “All major cities are vulnerable to flash floods,” the report stated. “Riyadh has witnessed more than 10 flood events in the past 30 years, which have claimed over 160 human lives and caused substantial socioeconomic losses.”

Sea levels are inexorably rising, and UN chief António Guterres has highlighted the “grim irony” that this threatens to overwhelm coastal oil terminals, including the ports of Ras Tanura and Yanbu, operated by Aramco and used to transport 98% of the country’s oil exports, worth $214 billion in 2023.

The Vicious Circle

Saudi Arabia’s enormous wealth provides options unavailable to poorer nations, such as air conditioning and seawater desalination. However, if these continue to be powered by fossil fuels, they create a vicious circle.

“The insatiable energy appetite of modern cities drives further pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, amplifying the very conditions we seek to safeguard against,” the report warned.

“At some point, the question will be: can they adapt to the impacts of climate change when it’s physically threatening to go outside your house for any period of time?” asks Meyer.

Global Consequences

The problem with Saudi Arabia’s delaying tactics is that they cause widespread harm. “Delaying a fossil fuel phaseout only spells more death and destruction across the planet,” says Nikki Reisch at the Center for International Environmental Law in the US. “While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states pursue plans to wean themselves off the fossil fuels they push on the rest of the world, nobody can escape the climate impacts that their products unleash—including their own populations.”

This week, Inger Andersen, head of the UN Environment Programme, stated: “Every fraction of a degree avoided is crucial to reduce an escalation of the climate impacts that are harming all nations.”

Possible Solutions

In recent years, groups of determined nations have collaborated outside the UN process to advance progress on renewables, coal, and forests. “You have seen more efforts to do ‘coalitions of the willing’ that don’t require consensus decision-making,” says Meyer. “That’s harder for the Saudis to block.”

Changing how UN climate summits operate would be extremely difficult, but experts led by Depledge have suggested implementing voting based on a supermajority of seven-eighths of nations: “This would capture overwhelming support across the globe, while sidelining a tiny minority of obstructors.”

One way to accelerate negotiations, they suggested, would be to sanction repeat procedural blockers, “just as delaying tactics in football can see offenders receive a yellow card.”

They also argued that obstructionism should be factored into determining who pays the funds needed to help poorer countries recover from climate catastrophes: “Deliberate delay inside the UN climate talks is as bad as continuing to pump emissions into the atmosphere. Doing both—as Saudi Arabia does—is even worse.”

Original Article:

The Guardian. (2025, November 17). $170,000 a minute: why Saudi Arabia is the biggest blocker of climate action. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/15/170000-a-minute-why-saudi-arabia-is-the-biggest-blocker-of-climate-action