JAKARTA – The evolving tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over Yemen signal a fundamental shift in regional dynamics, with Israel playing a significant role in the unfolding crisis.

Alliance Breakdown in Yemen

What was once perceived as a unified Saudi-UAE front in Yemen has fractured dramatically. The relationship between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has deteriorated following the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) military seizure of the Hadramaut and al-Mahra provinces. Saudi Arabia responded with strongly worded condemnations and limited airstrikes, prompting the UAE to announce a complete withdrawal of its forces from Yemeni territory.

Historical Context of the Conflict

The Yemen conflict began in 2015 when the Ansarallah movement captured Sana’a with support from approximately two-thirds of Yemen’s military forces. This revolutionary Islamic movement’s rise to power was perceived as a direct challenge to Gulf monarchies. The subsequent Saudi-led military intervention received approval from then-U.S. President Barack Obama and has resulted in approximately 400,000 deaths.

While Saudi Arabia backed deposed president Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and his internationally recognized government, the UAE pursued a different strategy by supporting southern separatist forces to control the strategic port city of Aden, echoing historical British colonial interests in the region.

Current Strategic Developments

By early 2022, after years of devastating warfare and a U.S.-Saudi blockade that caused widespread famine, Ansarallah had consolidated its rule and demonstrated advanced military capabilities through long-range drone and missile operations against both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Following a UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022, Saudi Arabia established the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), led by Rashad al-Alimi. This eight-member, unelected body included three seats for STC members and operated from Aden. Despite avoiding the sanctions imposed on Ansarallah-controlled territories, southern Yemen continued experiencing deteriorating conditions, sparking widespread protests.

December’s Game-Changing Offensive

In early December, STC forces rapidly captured the eastern provinces of al-Mahra and Hadramaut, gaining control of approximately 80% of Yemen’s oil resources. This expansion directly threatened Saudi and Omani security interests, particularly given that the Southern Giants Brigades—the primary STC fighting force—includes extremist elements with former Al-Qaeda operatives forming its experienced core.

The Israeli Connection

Israeli interests are deeply intertwined with UAE actions in Yemen. Tel Aviv maintains close ties with the STC, has participated in training their forces, and jointly established military positions with the UAE on Yemen’s Socotra island. This cooperation extends beyond Yemen to include mutual recognition of Somaliland and joint military infrastructure development at Berbera Port.

The UAE-Israeli partnership in the Horn of Africa directly impacts Yemen’s conflict dynamics. The Emiratis have even deployed fighters from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces—currently accused of genocide in their own country—to combat Ansarallah in Yemen.

Strategic Implications

If STC forces succeed in pushing for southern separation, they may attempt to seize the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah from Ansarallah—an objective Israel sought when encouraging the Trump administration’s failed operations against the movement in early 2025.

Saudi Arabia views these developments as undermining its regional position and potentially creating instability along its borders. The kingdom prefers maintaining the current status quo over risking a scenario where it must directly negotiate with a strengthened Ansarallah government.

For Israel, accepting a unified Yemen under Ansarallah rule—especially after the movement’s Red Sea blockade in support of Gaza—remains unacceptable. Tel Aviv appears willing to destabilize the entire region through its partnership with the UAE to weaken Ansarallah and assert Israeli dominance.

Military Realities

Despite UAE military displays, the country’s limited indigenous military capability and reliance on foreign workers make it vulnerable to sustained missile and drone campaigns from Yemen’s armed forces. Once Saudi Arabia’s involvement diminishes, Ansarallah would face primarily one adversary: the UAE, which lacks the defensive depth and military capacity of its larger neighbor.

Looking Ahead

The situation remains fluid, but several scenarios appear possible. Saudi Arabia may eventually need to negotiate directly with Sana’a to properly end the conflict. The kingdom’s swift establishment of red lines indicates recognition that UAE actions could create long-term security nightmares.

Meanwhile, Israel’s frustration with Saudi Arabia’s refusal to normalize relations may factor into current developments. The UAE’s actions appear closely coordinated with Israeli strategic objectives, functioning essentially as a proxy for Tel Aviv’s regional ambitions.

The unfolding crisis in Yemen represents more than a local conflict—it reflects broader regional power struggles involving Israeli expansion efforts, Gulf rivalries, and resistance movements challenging the established order across the Middle East.

Original Article:

Palestine Chronicle. (2026, January 3). Proxy Regime: Understanding the UAE-Israeli Conspiracy in Yemen, Saudi Arabia.  Retrieved from https://www.palestinechronicle.com/proxy-regime-understanding-the-uae-israeli-conspiracy-in-yemen-saudi-arabia/