JAKARTA – As part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has intensified its involvement in the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. This expansion marks a significant departure from Riyadh’s historically limited engagement with the region. While Vision 2030 primarily aims to diversify the Saudi economy, it is equally focused on extending Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical reach by capitalizing on the Horn of Africa’s agricultural capacity and its strategic importance along the Red Sea.

However, Saudi Arabia’s growing engagement—often mirrored by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), its closest Gulf competitor—has raised concerns about sovereignty, local economic priorities, and the optics of neocolonial resource extraction. Saudi and Emirati ventures risk reinforcing perceptions that powerful foreign actors are securing regional influence at the expense of local communities. Without committing to more equitable partnerships, Riyadh’s ambitions could exacerbate instability and undermine long-term development efforts.

Riyadh’s Evolving Perspective on the Greater Horn

Saudi Arabia’s current approach is shaped by three overarching priorities:

1. Boosting food security by reducing dependence on agricultural imports.
2. Competing with the UAE for influence over trade routes, ports, and regional diplomacy.
3. Countering China’s expanding presence on the African continent.

From the kingdom’s founding in 1932 until the early 2000s, Saudi engagement in the Horn was limited mostly to religious outreach, small-scale aid projects, and occasional investments. Despite the region’s vast uncultivated farmland and its control over major global shipping lanes, there was no sustained strategic focus. This history contributed to a lingering trust gap with African governments and communities.

Vision 2030 changed this dynamic. Confronted with severe water scarcity, high food import costs, and the need to diversify beyond oil, Riyadh began actively pursuing agricultural land, technology partnerships, and infrastructure access in the Horn of Africa. The UAE launched similar initiatives, transforming the region into a new arena of Gulf competition.

The rivalry between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh—long centered on economic diversification and regional influence—now extends to port development, agricultural projects, and Red Sea logistics. Examples include the UAE’s investments in Somaliland’s Berbera Port and Saudi Arabia’s major development plans for Eritrea’s Assab port. While such projects can spur regional growth, they also risk undermining Gulf cooperation and fueling local tensions if not managed responsibly.

China’s extensive footprint—ranging from loans to large infrastructure ventures—presents yet another layer of geopolitical complexity. Saudi Arabia aims to position itself as a more sustainable, partnership-driven alternative to China’s debt-heavy model. But doing so requires credible commitments to transparency and community-level engagement—areas in which Riyadh has historically fallen short.

Risks of an Unequal Strategy

When foreign investments prioritize external interests over local welfare, they almost inevitably provoke backlash. Saudi Arabia has already faced this reality.

In Ethiopia’s Gambella region, Saudi-linked projects under the King Abdullah Initiative for National Food Security displaced farmers, triggered violent protests, and resulted in both human rights allegations and major losses for investors. Mismanagement, drought, and persistent community resistance forced the scaling back of ambitious agricultural plans.

Similar unrest occurred in Sudan, where resistance to foreign land deals erupted multiple times between 2016 and 2018, halting projects and damaging Saudi Arabia’s reputation.

Today, the growing Saudi–UAE rivalry threatens to aggravate Sudan’s ongoing civil war. With Abu Dhabi accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Riyadh maintaining ties to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) while attempting to mediate, Gulf involvement risks deepening divisions. Investment projects are increasingly perceived not as engines of development, but as tools of political leverage.

Saudi Arabia’s attempt to counter China’s influence faces its own challenges. While Riyadh promotes itself as a cooperative, development-oriented partner, its track record often shows a disconnect between high-level agreements and local realities. Overreliance on government-to-government negotiations excludes local communities and fuels perceptions that Saudi projects benefit elites rather than ordinary citizens.

Ultimately, inequitable investment strategies threaten to frustrate Saudi ambitions, destabilize fragile states, and erode opportunities for long-term partnerships across the Horn of Africa.

Building Fairer and More Sustainable Partnerships

For Saudi Arabia’s Africa strategy to succeed—and to avoid reinforcing charges of neocolonialism—Riyadh must adopt a more equitable approach. Three key strategies can help align Vision 2030 goals with local development priorities:

1. Prioritize Local Employment and Skills Development

Saudi-funded projects should mandate local hiring, supported by training programs in sectors such as agriculture, logistics, and construction. This is especially vital in countries with high youth unemployment, like Eritrea. Creating pathways for women and young people fosters both community support and long-term economic empowerment.

2. Establish Joint Oversight Mechanisms

Transparent governance is essential to building trust. Saudi Arabia should support the creation of joint oversight committees that include:

• National-level bodies to ensure respect for sovereignty and compliance with international standards.
• Local committees empowered to monitor project execution, fund distribution, and community concerns.

This approach is especially crucial in conflict zones like Sudan, where corruption risks are significant and oversight can help prevent funds from being diverted to armed groups.

3. Invest a Portion of Profits in Local Infrastructure

Channeling profits to address essential needs—such as water access, irrigation systems, rural electrification, and renewable energy—creates visible benefits for local communities and reduces tensions. Expanding clean energy initiatives in Eritrea or improving irrigation in Sudan, for example, would directly support agricultural productivity and living conditions.

These strategies align with African Union frameworks like the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and Agenda 2063, which emphasize sustainable development, renewable energy, and agricultural modernization. Aligning Saudi investments with these priorities ensures mutual benefit and strengthens long-term partnerships.

Conclusion

Saudi Arabia’s growing involvement in the Horn of Africa presents both opportunities and risks. If Riyadh embraces inclusive practices, invests in local communities, and prioritizes equitable development, it can transition from a perceived extractor of resources to a trusted regional partner. Doing so will strengthen both its Vision 2030 goals and Africa’s long-term path toward stability and growth.

As the region becomes increasingly important to global trade and geopolitical rivalry, Saudi Arabia’s choices today will shape its future role across the African continent.

Original Article:

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2025, November 20). Saudi Arabia in Africa: Sound Economic and Geopolitical Strategy, or Resource Exploitation? Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/09/saudi-arabia-in-africa-sound-economic-and-geopolitical-strategy-or-resource-exploitation?lang=en