In the era of globalization, political and security issues in one region can strongly affect the global economy. Conflicts in the Middle East often create economic consequences that go beyond the region itself. The military attack carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February 2026 is one example of an event that may influence the global economic system.

This article discusses the possible economic impacts of the conflict, including its effects on energy prices, inflation, monetary policy, financial markets, and global economic growth.

Impact on Energy Prices

Iran is one of the countries with the largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world. When military tensions increase in this region, global energy markets usually react quickly. Even if there is no direct disruption in oil production, fears about possible supply problems can cause oil prices to rise.

Higher energy prices affect many sectors because energy is essential for transportation, industry, and production. As a result, instability in energy markets can create broader economic problems in many countries.

Global Inflation Pressure

When oil and gas prices increase, production and transportation costs also rise. This situation leads to higher prices for goods and services, causing inflation. Energy-related inflation often affects low-income groups more severely because they spend a larger portion of their income on basic needs.

Developing countries that depend on imported energy may face greater challenges. They can experience trade deficits, currency depreciation, and higher government spending on energy subsidies.

Monetary Policy Challenges

Rising inflation creates difficulties for central banks. On one hand, they may increase interest rates to control inflation. On the other hand, higher interest rates can slow down economic growth because loans become more expensive and consumer spending decreases.

Geopolitical uncertainty also causes instability in financial markets. Investors often move their money to safer assets, such as gold or government bonds from developed countries. This movement of capital can weaken the currencies of developing nations and create financial instability.

Disruption of Global Supply Chains

The Middle East is a strategic region for global energy transportation, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this area can increase shipping costs and insurance expenses. This may slow down global trade and increase the prices of goods worldwide.

Supply chain disruptions can worsen inflation and reduce industrial production, especially in countries that rely heavily on imported energy and raw materials.

Impact on Global Economic Growth

The combination of rising energy prices, inflation, financial market instability, and supply chain disruptions can slow global economic growth. Lower purchasing power and reduced investment due to uncertainty may weaken overall economic activity.

Although energy-exporting countries may benefit from higher oil prices in the short term, long-term instability still creates risks for the global economy.

Acceleration of Energy Transition

On the positive side, energy crises often encourage countries to invest more in renewable energy. High oil prices and supply uncertainty can motivate governments to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and develop more sustainable energy sources.

Conclusion

The military attack on Iran by the United States and Israel shows how geopolitical conflicts can have wide-ranging economic effects. Rising energy prices, inflation pressure, monetary policy challenges, financial market volatility, and slower economic growth are closely connected outcomes.

In an increasingly interconnected world, political stability and international security play an important role in maintaining global economic balance. Therefore, cooperation and peaceful solutions are essential to protect global economic stability.

Reference:
Al Arif, M. N. R. (2026, March 2). Dampak serangan Amerika-Israel ke Iran terhadap ekonomi global. Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. https://www.uinjkt.ac.id/id/dampak-serangan-amerika-israel-ke-iran-terhadap-ekonomi-global