Source: Halal Times

Kawaguchiko, Japan – In a concerning development, India announced on April 23, 2025, its intention to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following a militant attack in Kashmir. This action threatens a critical water agreement that has survived three wars and countless diplomatic tensions since its signing in 1960. The treaty, which allocates the waters of the Indus River system between the two nations, is particularly crucial for Pakistan, where these waters support nearly half the population’s livelihoods.

Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus River system consists of six major rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (western rivers) and the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi (eastern rivers). These waterways originate primarily in the Himalayas before flowing through Pakistan to the Arabian Sea. When partition occurred in 1947, the headwaters fell under Indian control, creating a significant vulnerability for downstream Pakistan.

After nine years of negotiations mediated by the World Bank, the IWT established a framework that gives Pakistan unrestricted use of the western rivers, which account for approximately 80% of the system’s 135 million acre-feet annual flow. India received control of the eastern rivers, comprising the remaining 20%. This arrangement has enabled Pakistan to develop one of the world’s largest irrigation networks, essential for its agricultural sector and economic stability.

The treaty also established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), with commissioners from both nations facilitating data exchange and addressing issues through regular meetings. Additionally, Article IX provides a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism involving PIC negotiations, neutral expert review, and arbitration.

Legal Framework and Obligations

The IWT imposes specific obligations on both nations:

Pakistan’s obligations include:

• Responsible use of the western rivers for irrigation, hydropower, and domestic needs
• Sharing operational data on water infrastructure
• Active participation in the PIC
• Following the dispute resolution process

India’s obligations include:

• Refraining from actions that significantly reduce western river flows to Pakistan
• Managing the eastern rivers while permitting Pakistan’s agreed-upon limited uses
• Providing Pakistan with regular flow and flood data
• Engaging with Pakistan’s commissioner through the PIC
• Adhering to the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism

The World Bank serves as a mediator but not enforcer, appointing neutral experts or arbitrators when requested while maintaining impartiality.

Can India Legally End the Treaty?

India’s attempt to suspend the IWT faces significant legal hurdles. Article XII(4) explicitly states that the treaty remains in force until replaced by a mutually ratified agreement, making unilateral termination impossible. The 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties permits termination only for a “material breach,” which Pakistan’s alleged involvement in terrorism does not constitute under the treaty’s water-sharing provisions.

Furthermore, Article IX requires that treaty provisions remain active during disputes, making India’s suspension itself a violation of the treaty’s terms. Pakistan has challenged India to substantiate its claims before international bodies, asserting the treaty’s inviolability.

Physical Limitations on Water Control

India’s ability to disrupt Pakistan’s water supply faces practical limitations. Under the treaty, India’s storage capacity on the western rivers is restricted to 3.6 million acre-feet, insufficient to significantly alter flows. Building new large-scale dams would require 10-15 years and face environmental and political opposition in Jammu and Kashmir.

Existing run-of-river projects like Kishanganga are designed for power generation rather than water retention and cannot substantially reduce downstream flows. While India could withhold flow or flood data, this would complicate Pakistan’s water management without stopping the water supply.

Potential Consequences of Treaty Violations

Any violations of the IWT could trigger severe consequences:

• Legal actions: Pakistan could initiate proceedings at the International Court of Justice or the UN Security Council
• Security risks: Pakistan’s military doctrine permits action against existential water threats, potentially escalating tensions between nuclear-armed states
• Economic impact: Even minor flow disruptions could devastate Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which supports 37.4% of its workforce and contributes 24% of GDP
• Regional instability: India’s actions could prompt China to restrict Brahmaputra flows, on which India relies for 30% of its freshwater
• International reaction: Global powers may intervene to prevent water-related conflicts

Pakistan’s Strategic Options

Facing this challenge, Pakistan must pursue multiple strategies:

1. Legal recourse: Seek rulings from international courts framing India’s suspension as a violation of international law
2. World Bank mediation: Engage the World Bank to facilitate dialogue and pressure India into compliance
3. Infrastructure development: Accelerate dam projects like Diamer-Bhasha to enhance storage capacity
4. Diplomatic outreach: Build international support through forums like the UN
5. Strategic deterrence: Maintain a stance that underscores the existential nature of water security

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty has been the cornerstone of water security in the subcontinent for over six decades. For Pakistan especially, where the Indus system irrigates 47 million acres of farmland and sustains 80% of agriculture, the treaty’s preservation is essential for national survival. India’s recent announcement threatens not only Pakistan’s water access but also regional stability.

The treaty’s legal framework makes unilateral termination impossible, and practical limitations constrain India’s ability to immediately disrupt water flows. Nevertheless, Pakistan must take proactive measures to protect its water rights through legal, diplomatic, and infrastructure development strategies. As tensions rise, the international community’s role in preserving this vital agreement becomes increasingly important for preventing humanitarian and security crises in South Asia.

Original Articles:

halaltimes.com. (n.d.). The Indus Waters Treaty: Why India Cannot Unilaterally End Pakistan’s Vital Water Lifeline. Retrieved April 28, 2025, from https://www.halaltimes.com/the-indus-waters-treaty-why-india-cannot-unilaterally-end-pakistans-vital-water-lifeline/