JAKARTA – The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia appears to be gradually warming to the idea of re-establishing stronger connections with Lebanon, though this potential rapprochement comes with significant prerequisites that Beirut must fulfill.

The Drug Trade Crackdown

Recent Lebanese efforts to combat narcotics trafficking represent a critical step toward rebuilding trust with Gulf partners. Authorities have made substantial seizures of illicit substances in recent operations, including the apprehension of a major figure in the drug trade accused of smuggling operations.

Lebanese security forces have confiscated approximately 100 million Captagon pills through various operations, demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing a problem that has severely damaged bilateral relations.

The narcotics issue has been particularly sensitive for Saudi Arabia, which has seen Lebanon used as a transit point for drugs originating from neighboring Syria. This smuggling pipeline has been a major irritant in diplomatic relations between the two nations.

Key Obstacles to Full Engagement

Several major hurdles stand in the way of a complete restoration of Saudi-Lebanese ties:

Security Concerns: The presence of armed non-state actors remains a central issue. Riyadh expects significant progress on this front before committing substantial resources to Lebanon’s recovery.

Economic Reforms: International financial institutions have outlined specific structural changes required for any bailout package. Saudi Arabia and other potential donors are waiting to see concrete implementation of these measures before opening their wallets.

Drug Trafficking: Continued vigilance against narcotics smuggling is essential. Any backsliding on enforcement efforts would likely derail diplomatic progress.

According to regional security analysts, the Saudi position reflects careful risk assessment rather than outright rejection of engagement. The Kingdom wants to see sustained commitment to reform before making major financial commitments.

Recent Diplomatic Signals

Several developments suggest a possible thaw in relations:

• High-level Lebanese officials traveled to the Gulf earlier this year, marking the first such visit in years
• A Saudi diplomatic delegation recently visited Beirut for discussions on trade and investment
• Conversations have begun regarding the potential removal of restrictions on Lebanese products
• Lebanese leadership has publicly pledged to prevent the country from being used to threaten regional partners’ security

The Regional Context

Lebanon’s situation is part of a broader regional dynamic. Following recent conflicts and ceasefires, international powers are seeking to stabilize the area, with Washington pushing for particular outcomes and potentially looking to Riyadh to play a supportive role.

The Saudi-Lebanese relationship has experienced multiple cycles over recent decades. The Kingdom was instrumental in ending Lebanon’s civil war through diplomatic initiatives and subsequently invested heavily in reconstruction. It also backed certain political factions to counterbalance Iranian influence.

However, relations deteriorated following the 2005 assassination of a prominent Lebanese politician close to Riyadh, and worsened further after subsequent conflicts. A 2017 political crisis and a 2021 diplomatic incident over comments about Saudi regional policy led to the withdrawal of ambassadors and trade restrictions.

Lebanese exports to the Kingdom topped $200 million yearly from 2016-2020, then dropped to roughly $124 million in 2021 before nearly collapsing in subsequent years. Restoring this trade relationship could provide meaningful economic relief to Lebanon’s struggling economy.

The Path Forward

Experts suggest Saudi re-engagement depends on multiple factors aligning simultaneously. Lebanon must demonstrate sustained progress on security sector reform, implement meaningful economic restructuring, maintain pressure on criminal networks, and show that state institutions can effectively govern.

Recent legislative actions offer some encouragement. Parliament has approved measures to increase financial transparency and begin restructuring the banking sector, though implementation challenges remain. These steps are necessary but not sufficient to unlock international support.

The security situation presents another complication. Ongoing tensions and the threat of renewed conflict make large-scale investment extremely risky. Any escalation would likely cause potential investors to pause their plans indefinitely.

A Measured Approach

Saudi Arabia’s strategy toward Lebanon stands in marked contrast to its approach elsewhere in the region. While the Kingdom is making massive infrastructure investments in Syria – committing billions to energy, telecommunications, and other sectors – its Lebanon policy remains deliberately cautious.

The difference reflects distinct risk calculations. In Syria, Riyadh sees an opportunity to expand influence and address security concerns through proactive engagement. In Lebanon, the complexity of internal politics and unresolved security questions demand a more gradual approach.

Throughout this period, Saudi Arabia has maintained some level of engagement, including public statements supporting Lebanese sovereignty and condemning external aggression. There are also discussions about Saudi participation in initiatives to strengthen Lebanese security forces.

The coming months will reveal whether Lebanon can meet the conditions necessary for deeper Saudi involvement. Progress on reforms, continued security improvements, and political stability would likely encourage greater Gulf investment. Conversely, any return to instability or failure to implement promised changes would reinforce Saudi caution.

For now, Riyadh’s message is clear: goodwill exists, but actions must precede major commitments. Lebanon’s ability to deliver on its pledges will determine whether this tentative opening develops into a full partnership or remains an opportunity unfulfilled.

Original Article:

The Arab News. (2025, November 28). Testing the waters: Is Saudi Arabia re-engaging with Lebanon? Retrieved from https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newarab.com/analysis/testing-waters-saudi-arabia-re-engaging-lebanon%3famp